In my view, a revolution requires a very strong defense system, encompassing strong leadership as a vanguard force and a capable, competent bureaucracy. Since the triumph of the Washington Consensus (an economic policy framework that advocates for free markets, deregulation, and privatization), there has been a major reversal of attempts to build dynamic capabilities. This period saw the emergence of what Mariana Mazzucato calls "the beacon," referring to large consulting firms. A deliberate effort was made to diminish the work of government, especially in the Global South, promoting the idea of a "small government" and "weaker states," with governmental functions outsourced to these consulting firms.
Mazzucato's work painstakingly demonstrates how this approach has weakened governments and states in the Global South, significantly impacting development outcomes. These consulting firms often lacked the actual capability for major development programs, effectively infantilizing the state by reducing its role to merely issuing contracts and tenders. Nations need to learn from each other to strengthen and build their own capabilities, as highlighted by the work of Oakbay and others. The significance of institutions in driving societal growth is also underscored by Tung and other scholars.
This discussion can be contextualized within China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and its alignment with the aspirations of Agenda 2063 (the African Union's strategic framework for the socio-economic transformation of the continent). It is crucial to demonstrate why building dynamic capabilities is essential by examining the synergies between the BRI and Agenda 2063, as both share the overarching idea of building a community with a shared future for humankind. A closer reading reveals that the aspirations are fundamentally the same. The objectives of Agenda 2063, such as fostering well-educated citizens, driving a skills revolution underpinned by science and technology, and developing world-class infrastructure, coincide with the fundamental ingredients for the BRI's success. Transformative institutions and leadership, along with the engagement of youth, are also critical for achieving these objectives. These goals would be impossible to realize without building dynamic state capabilities that can drive a coherent national and regional development agenda.
In the Global South, the state and state institutions have been hollowed out due to outsourcing. This erosion of capabilities has resulted in politicians primarily engaging in ceremonial activities, such as cutting ribbons, kissing babies, and traveling to Beijing or Washington, lacking deeper capabilities beyond these functions. In the West, these politicians are often wined and dined by vested interests, which further erodes their intellectual capacity to make meaningful decisions.
An example illustrates the consequences of lacking dynamic capabilities. Early Belt and Road Initiative projects in Uganda and Kenya reportedly had very weak terms and conditions in their contracts. This was largely attributed to a rush by leaders to sign contracts due to looming elections, prioritizing the visible launch of projects over a thorough study of contract details. Consequently, some of these early projects became targets of criticism from the Global North. This underscores the importance of rebuilding dynamic capabilities at both the political and bureaucratic levels; failure to do so would weaken the ability to transform societies.
Therefore, it is imperative to embark on a massive investment in reskilling bureaucracies in the Global South, beginning with leadership. China serves as an example where the quality of leadership directly correlates with development outcomes. The proposal is to replicate this in the Global South, building the capacity of leadership to govern economies effectively, rather than outsourcing this crucial function to external agencies. Leaders must possess a nuanced understanding of economic data and recognize that development is an outcome of quality decisions. Poor decisions, even with abundant resources, will not yield the desired benefits. Leaders must understand that development necessitates investment in the economy, and that investment is not a function of prayer, as seen in some countries where leaders spend more time convening people in stadiums for prayer than in boardrooms to model growth. This matters significantly because those in leadership positions make the strategic choices that countries will pursue.
It is also essential to rebuild institutions in the Global South. In many cases, these institutions have been weakened and hollowed out due to their dependence on large consulting firms, as mentioned earlier. Furthermore, institutions have become a major frontier for capture and corruption in many Global South countries. Therefore, this project of investing in rebuilding dynamic institutions is vital, whether these institutions are responsible for effective tax collection, regulating construction, or leading and managing higher education and skills development. This represents a very important and necessary commitment.
Crucially, as observed in China and many other Asian countries, there must be a massive investment in building bureaucracies, as bureaucracies in some Global South countries are dysfunctional. This leads to officials making arbitrary decisions, lacking accountability, being susceptible to corruption, and delaying or making poor decisions. It has been argued that within BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) in particular, objectives will not be met without investing in bureaucracies that understand each other's systems, including trading systems and customs. Therefore, a clear agenda is needed to cultivate competent bureaucrats in Brazil, Iran, South Africa, Ethiopia, Egypt, and elsewhere, as these competent professionals execute the mandates of leadership. This necessitates building a system of meritocracy to select the most capable individuals, rather than choosing the least effective options. Bureaucrats should be viewed as pilots who constantly return to a simulator to calibrate and recalibrate their abilities to understand the global system and value chains, make quality decisions, and, most importantly, interpret and implement the decisions of leadership.
The youth represent a very important productive force in many Global South countries, yet they are often left behind. Insufficient capabilities prevent them from fully engaging in their countries' economies. This often results in protests and changes in leadership due to poor quality education, inadequate outcomes, and limited access to services. For young women in particular, poor health outcomes are a significant concern. Therefore, for the success of the Global South project, it is crucial to invest massively in the reskilling of young people.
Finally, a significant mistake being made is the exclusion of civil society, including scholars and media, from these engagements. The belief that the Global South project will succeed solely because leaders have decided and agreed upon it, or because public servants can execute mandates, is flawed. Civil society and non-state actors must not be left behind; they are crucial for becoming a protective or defense force for the ongoing revolution. This includes engaging with the media differently, ensuring that media houses do not merely emulate those in Washington or London, where even journalists face discontent. Creative approaches are needed to build networks and bonds of progressive civil society that can tell the real story. Otherwise, the Global South will be overwhelmed by headlines that misrepresent outcomes. It is therefore essential to build a very strong, well-informed civil society that understands the intentions of the Global South agenda.
To illustrate what it means to build state capacity in the Global South, consider the analogy of a one-ton truck carrying a hundred-ton load. The global project cannot be abandoned simply because the Global South lacks the analytical capacity of organizations like the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) or the resources of large consulting firms. Instead, if this agenda is driven by the Global South, which currently operates like a one-ton truck carrying a hundred-ton load, there must be an active focus on the science of building its own capacity to bear that load. This may involve replacing "retread tires" (incompetent leaders), which are dangerous when carrying heavy loads, and potentially adjusting the speed of operations. Mutual learning is also vital to avoid repeating mistakes or wasting resources on problems already solved by others. The fundamental definition of a developmental state lies in its ability to balance its strength and capacity with the scope of its ambitions. Without reskilling, institutions and leaders can be overwhelmed by assumptions of capability when they are, in fact, like a one-ton truck carrying a hundred-ton load.
Therefore, through reskilling, the Global South can recalibrate, build strength, reinforce its operational engine, and develop new "shock absorbers" to prevent the entire project from collapsing. In short, for the success of the Global South project, there must be investment in reskilling various cadres within society, particularly those within the state, while also actively engaging civil society, non-governmental organizations (NGOs), academia, and young people.
(Transcribed from recording and edited.)